Three things we’re talking about today when we’re talking about the Caps…
1. Is it Ov-er?
Two games into this series, Alex Ovechkin has registered just one shot on goal, which is the same total as the number of soul-crushing power play turnovers that he’s made that have ended up as game-winning shorthanded Ranger goals. And so, as is so often the case when the Caps have trailed in a playoff series over the past decade-and-a-half, all eyes are on the Caps’ captain, including from his head coach:
For Carbery, the telltale sign that he’s “off just a touch” is the number of shots he’s had blocked – four at five-on-five and another three on the power play. But it’s not just that. He’s also missed the net with three power-play shots, which puts his “on-goal” rate of shot attempts at 1-of-11… only 11. Per NatStatTrick, the numbers are down across the board:
Tiny samples, of course, but what sticks out is less the shot generation (iCF/60 here), and more, as Carbery notes, the rate of shots getting through (iFF/60) and ultimately on goal (SOG/60). His individual scoring chances (iSCF/60) are actually more or less in line with his regular season marks, and, for what it’s worth, his on-ice numbers aren’t particularly worrisome. He’s just… a little off.
So how does he get a little on? Being back home and getting the last line change will allow Carbery to get Ovechkin out for more favorable matchups… but chase those matchups and he risks letting Peter Laviolette dictate when and how much he can deploy the greatest goalscorer of all-time. And he probably is getting as many offensive-zone starts as he can handle:
To that last point, though, it may be time to reunite Ovechkin with Dylan Strome if for no other reason than Strome’s team-best 52.8% regular-season faceoff win percentage, which has held steady at 51.5% through two playoff games, while Connor McMichael (Ovechkin’s current pivot) has seen a drop from 42.4% in the regular-season to 36.4% (of course, some of that owes to Big Pete having the option to put his preferred draw man out against Ovi’s line). The difference is just a couple of faceoff wins per night. But that could well be what Alex Ovechkin needs to keep climbing this list:
2. Icing on the Cake
In the game of hockey, there are good icings, and there are bad icings. There are times when you’re hemmed in your defensive zone and the best play is to send the puck the length of the ice to give you a chance to catch your breath, reset, win a draw, and exit the zone, and there are times when you miss connecting on a pass on your side of the neutral zone (or don’t gain the center stripe) and give your opponent a free offensive-zone faceoff that leads to bad things.
The Caps have been doing too much of the latter through two games.
Per More Hockey Stats, the Caps have iced the puck ten times over the two games (that’s up a tick from 4.1 per game over the regular season). The good news is they’ve won seven of the ensuing faceoffs (surprisingly way higher than their overall defensive zone success rate of 19-for-45 (42.2%)). The bad news is that on the draws they’ve lost, bad things have happened: one goal against (Vincent Trocheck’s in Game 2), one penalty taken (John Carlson’s in Game 2, yielding a power play on which the Rangers scored) and one icing all within the subsequent half minute. (It’s also worth noting that the Rangers have taken 10 icings and while the Caps haven’t scored in the immediate aftermath, they have drawn two penalties and forced two more icings.) MHS doesn’t categorize the icing itself (which would be impossible without watching the games), but the point is as clear as it ever has been against the Rangers: bad things tend to happen when you ice the puck.
Well, maybe not as clear as it ever has been…
One more sorta related note: Nic Dowd, as usual, has been buried with defensive zone starts (see the chart above), but has been getting killed on faceoffs there, going 8-for-27 (29.6%, including 3-for-12 shorthanded), well below his regular-season mark of 46.3%. Vincent Trochek has gone 9-for-12 against Dowd there (and overall). Meanwhile, Dylan Strome is a cool 6-for-6 in the DZ after posting a 57.4% win rate during the regular season. (And, yes, the last two bullets have implicitly suggested that Strome take all of the offensive- and defensive-zone draws… perhaps the answer is to never let him leave the ice.) With the series returning home and thus giving Spencer Carbery the last line change, it will be interesting to see if he works around that Dowd-Trochek matchup in the defensive zone (at least at five-on-five), or he let’s it play out and hopefully regress.
That is, y’know, if he gets the chance to change his lines because his team didn’t just ice it.
3. Such Close Brothers
As a parent, there is nothing in the world that fills your heart like seeing a strong bond, a closeness between your children. But maybe not this way:
Those are the Game Scores for every player in Game 2 and, well… it’s nice of big brother Charlie to keep his l’il bro company at the bottom of the list.
While he didn’t have his best outing, Lindgren (Charlie) wasn’t the worst player on the ice on Tuesday night, but so sayeth the model. And, big picture, it’s very cool that the brothers are facing each other here. Hopefully they’ll have four or five more chances to finish way higher on those lists. Then… maybe dinner: